Orange County in 2020

During the last decade, Orange County became “majority minority,” and the proportion of white residents will continue to decline. How are we managing this demographic change? Pretty well, this data suggests.  Fifty-eight percent expect race and ethnic relations in the County to improve by 2020—very close to the same percentage (61%) who answered the question in 2000. Over one-quarter of residents expected race and ethnic relations to get worse in both surveys (2000, 25%; 2010, 27%).  Seventy-two percent of Democrats believe that ethnic and race relations will improve by 2020, compared to 55% of Republicans, and to 69% of “Decline to State” and voters in other parties; a statistically significant difference. Differences between racial/ethnic groups are not statistically significant.

 

Looking ahead to the year 2020, which is more likely to happen? (A) Race and ethnic relations will improve, or (B) race and ethnic relations will get worse?

Rep Dem Indep/Other
Improve 55% 72% 69%
Get Worse 35 21 26
Neither 10 7 5

 

Despite a declining crime rate in Orange County, crime is typically an important issue in the minds of residents. Our collective expectations in 2000 about the crime rate in 2020 were very similar to our views of the same future today. Nearly half (47%) believe the crime rate will increase by 2020, compared to 49% in 2000. Thirty-six percent think the rate will decrease (vs. 40% in 2000), and 8% (vs. 7% in 2000) expect the crime rate to neither increase nor decrease. In 2010, 60% of Republicans expect the crime rate to increase, compared to 43% of Democrats and to 42% of those in other parties or declining to state a party. This result is consistent with a pattern. Democrats at this time are generally more optimistic about the future than Republicans.

 

Looking ahead to the year 2020, which is more likely to happen? (A) The crime rate will increase, or (B) the crime rate will decrease?

Rep Dem Indep/Other
Improve 60% 43% 42%
Get Worse 32 46 44
Neither 8 10 8

 

Residents are very pessimistic about the future of public schools.  In 2000, 58% of residents predicted that public schools would improve by 2020 and 33% said they would get worse. These figures nearly reversed in the 2010 survey. Today, 38% said the public schools would improve by 2020 and 55% said they would get worse. Faith in the system of public education is sharply divided by party lines. Fifty-four percent of Democrats and 46% of non-aligned or minor party voters believe that public education will improve, compared to only 24% of Republicans. A majority of adults with children in public schools (59%) also expect the system to get worse by 2020.

 

Looking ahead to the year 2020, which is more likely to happen? (A) The public education system will improve, or (B) the public education system will get worse?

Rep Dem Indep/Other Have Children in Public School
Improve 24% 54% 46% 40%
Get Worse 72 42 47 59
Neither 4 2 7 1

 

This year, Orange County residents are confronted by a substantially slower economy and a much higher unemployment rate than in 2000.  Nationwide, the recession—and government’s response to it—has fueled populist movements such as the Tea Party protests. Those drawn to the Tea Party have railed against social programs for the poor and government bailouts for the rich, believing they come at the expense of the middle class. However, we found little difference across a decade between the two surveys in the proportion who expected the gap between rich and poor to grow.

In both 2000 and 2010, 64% of survey respondents expected this gap to grow. Proportionally more people in Orange County today (26%) than in 2000 (23%) believe the gap between rich and poor will get smaller, and fewer today (5%) than in 2000 (8%) foresee no change. In 2010, significantly fewer of those who make less than $39,999 per year (60%) believe this gap will grow by 2020, than those who make between $79,999 and $125,000 per year (75%).

 

Looking ahead to the year 2020, which is more likely to happen? (A) The gap between rich and poor will grow, or (B) the gap between rich and poor will get smaller?

Less than $39,999 40K to $79,999 80K to $124,999 Over 125K
Grow 60% 65% 75% 66%
Get Smaller 38 26 16 27
Neither 2 6 3 5

 

“Jobs and the economy” are ranked as the most important problem in Orange County by 47% of survey respondents compared to just 4% a decade ago. Expectations about job opportunities and economic conditions in 2020 are nevertheless quite similar in 2000 (61% improve) and 2010 (60% improve).  Although the difference is not statistically significant, it is interesting to note that optimism about the County’s economic future is positively associated with level of income.  Fifty-seven percent of respondents reporting an income less than $39,999 expect job opportunities and economic conditions to improve, compared to 65% of those with incomes over $125,000 per year.

Looking ahead to the year 2020, which is more likely to happen? (A) job opportunities and economic conditions will improve, or (B) job opportunities and economic conditions will get worse?

Less than $39,999 40K to $79,999 80K to $124,999 Over 125K
Improve 57% 61% 62% 65%
Get Worse 37 32 25 30
Neither 3 4 7 2

What will it be like to live in Orange County in 2020? Will it be a better or worse place to live? Nearly equal proportions of survey respondents in 2000 (31%) and 2010 (32%) expect the County to be a better place to live in 2020 than today, but 31% in 2000 expected no change, compared to 42% today. Thirty-two percent in 2000 foresaw Orange County in 2020 as a worse place to live, compared to 21% of survey respondents in 2010.  Perhaps this difference is due to a perception today that matters cannot get much worse.