2010 Governor, Senate Races

On June 8, Republicans will select the nominees who will likely face off against Barbara Boxer for a U.S. Senate seat and Jerry Brown for governor.  This is not specifically a political poll. However, our relatively large sample size (n= 675), the high percentage of respondents who report they are (92%) “absolutely certain” they are registered to vote and the large proportion who say they always or nearly always vote (85%) suggest that the data could provide some insight into where the races stand as they enter their final weeks. These analyses consider just the 563 respondents who said they “always” or “nearly always” vote.

Governor's Race

The County GOP still proclaims Orange County to be the “Most Republican County in America,” though other counties have a higher concentration of registered Republican voters. Orange County is a hotbed of fundraising and home of the state’s GOP base. Naturally, it is very important for a Republican candidate for office to have strong support from Orange County if she or he expects to compete for state office.

Businesswoman Meg Whitman has spent millions of dollars to fund her gubernatorial campaign, while vowing to spend millions more in an attempt to win the statewide election (if she wins the Republican primary).  A whopping 97%  of local Republicans have heard of Meg Whitman, and 75% have either a very favorable or somewhat favorable impression of her. Up to this point, her “business approach” messaging seems to resonate with County voters.

Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner has not had the same success. While 90% of Republicans have now heard of him, only 54% have a very favorable or somewhat favorable impression of him. Assuming that “favorability” translates into votes, Whitman’s 20-point lead will be tough to overcome.

No one can accuse Poizner of neglecting the County; he has campaigned extensively here over the last several months. What explains his low favorability ratings? One reason is the effectiveness of Whitman’s multimillion-dollar negative television campaign. Poizner’s late start with television advertising let Whitman’s camp define him as “someone who can’t be trusted” before he had a chance to define himself to voters, and build up what many pundits believe is an insurmountable lead.  Should Poizner win the Republican nomination for governor on June 8, it will be one of the greatest comebacks in the state’s history.

Meanwhile, former governor, Oakland mayor and current attorney general Jerry Brown ranks third among the three gubernatorial candidates in favorability. While 91% have heard of him, only 34% have a favorable impression of him. Brown will benefit from his name recognition and years of experience, but he will be challenged by a Republican candidate with significantly more personal wealth this summer. Brown, of course, is not facing a primary opponent.

U.S. Senate Race

U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer will face the winner of the Republican primary. Some 96% of respondents have heard of Boxer, but only 39% have a favorable impression of her.

The candidates for the nomination in the Republican party for U.S. Senate are Tom Campbell, Carly Fiorina and Chuck Devore. Eight in 10 Republicans have heard of Campbell, and 84% have a favorable impression of the former congressman. He is the frontrunner in Orange County.

Former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina was known only by 53% of the Republicans surveyed and was viewed favorably by 81%.

We found this result surprising given the millions of dollars the Fiorina campaign has spent on advertising against the underfunded Campbell campaign. Although we specified the candidates’ official ballot designation, it has been suggested that Campbell enjoys higher name recognition because there are two other “Campbells” in public office -- Congressman John Campbell (CA-48th) and Supervisor Bill Campbell (3rd district). Also, although Fiorina announced her candidacy in Garden Grove and has visited the County several times, she is virtually tied with Campbell, her chief rival, in favorability ratings.

Republican Assemblyman Chuck DeVore is the best liked, but the least known by Republicans. Only 60% have heard of him. DeVore received the highest percentage of favorability (88%) among Republicans. Those who are aware of him have a favorable impression of him. DeVore has focused his efforts at the grassroots level and has been embraced by many from the Tea Party movement throughout the state.